2008 predictions and 2009 predictions

December 31st, 2008 by Avatar X Leave a reply »

A year goes by and it is time to revise how well the predctions from the previous year went. i will only give a rundown since it would take a awhile to truly analyze them.

For 2008

  1. Truly powerful and useful widgets thanks to Flex and Silverlight
  2.  More blurring of the lines thanks to new hybrid widgets getting into the desktops thanks to the very same plugins.
  3. Widget as mobile apps getting noticed and used broadly
  4. Modular widgets implementations getting inside all kind of web services
  5. Widget support in E-mail
  6. Feedsync derived Widgets
  7. Google and Yahoo caving in and finally giving direct support for Windows Vista Sidebar
  8. Web to Vista sidebar and OS X dashboard in one click from all major distribuitors
  9. a war of universal widget platforms
  10. widgets getting into appliances, from frames to kitchen boards.

The Results:

  1. it got halfway to be true. but it is happening in a very slow fashion.
  2. also happening but given JavaFX delay, that pretty much no one to advantage of Flash and Flex OS layering techniques and that Silverlight 2 is still not mature enough. it is not happening directly from the browser.but in terms of AIR, Titanium and SSB`s like Fluid, Bubbles and special projects like Moolight Desklets and Desklighter. i would say i got it right.
  3.  Totally.  this is something the Apple pretty much archived with both some of the native apps and the web apps you can use in the iPhone and Ipod Touch
  4. Yes.  not broadly. but happening. 
  5. Yes!. i got it totally right. just not in the way i expected. gmail got widgets, the new AOL mail two versions got widget or widgetization. the new hotmail got widget modules and Yahoo is also rolling widgetization for its e-mail.  i could say it did happened.
  6. Demoed as part of the Live FX framework. but we cannot access them yet. so. pretty much not yet.
  7. Blatant NO. this one i blew it completely. i am actually really surprised it didn`t happen.  
  8. Yes. High Spread Sharing modules gave me that one right. gigya, clearspring, springwidgets,etc now export widget from the web to the OS started with a click.
  9. It happened. not as heated and fast paced as needed but it happened with OpenSocial, FBL, Netvibes, Social Network specific, mobile widgets, etc. just that it pretty much created a standar of action and the platforms have been able to live with each other all right so far. 
  10. YES!. they are now indeed in appliances from photo frames, to kitchen boards to things like the chumby.

Overall. i would say it went very well for me. i got 6 solid yes. 3 half into a yes but that should be considered a tie, and 1 solid no.

Not bad at all.

Now For 2009

  1. consolidation of powerful and useful widgets thanks to Flex, JavaFX and Silverlight
  2.  Lines get fully blurred from the desktop to the browser because of Os Layering, Widget-App Engines and SSB clients. 
  3. Consolidation of Widget-apps in mobiles thanks to mobile RIA platforms. that are exactly the same ones dominating the desktop 
  4. Widgetization in pretty much all online service
  5. Live FX Framework Widgets now out and showing a new game for Widgets and Widget-apps
  6. Google and Yahoo caving in and finally giving direct support for Windows Vista Sidebar
  7. Widgets get into a Socialization Frenzy
  8. Widgets get into a Federated Identity Connector Frenzy
  9. Widgets turn heavy into branding and entertainment. a blur of Widget Utilities and Widget Advertising starts to happen. a small backlash to follow thanks to that and the ties of widgets with Identity and Sociality
  10. Widgets hit big money as engagement, branding and code portability gain the spotlight

I pretty much retooled some of 2008 and added some new ones given what happened in the last 4 months of 2008. lets see if i can get beyond the not so bad 75% of accuracy i had this year..

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